As always, most weeks – we do our main Santa Clarita Valley real estate and housing news update. Typically on Mondays. All you have to do to view it is to google Santa Clarita real estate news – we are the first local result identified by Google as being experts above the local news and radio stations in Santa Clarita Valley, of which I’m honored.
Today, we are going to delve into the data within the Valencia CA areas and neighborhoods. Partly because the Valencia California housing market is very different as when compared to the rest of the Santa Clarita Valley Cities. Like I do on Mondays, I take either the median or average values related to the housing market data within the SCV cities. I take those data points and combine them in an overall real estate picture by combining Valencia, Stevenson Ranch, Newhall, Saugus, Canyon Country, and Castaic.
Most recent sold listings in Valencia California
We are going to do something more specific related to the city of Valencia alone in this real estate update and news article.
The overall real estate markets have slowed down during the past several weeks, starting with the decline beginning August 2018. It was in short order our local real estate active listings for sale increased from being in the 300’s for several years to over 700. That threw the real estate market back on its heels causing it to take longer to sell homes and real estate in the Cities of Santa Clarita Valley. Valencia also was impacted, but not to the level when the “median and averages” are taken into the factoring.
During the past 7 days in Valencia California – there is a trend with Expired, withdrawn and those home which has been placed on hold with a do not show order.
In Valencia CA it’s not usual to have those high numbers of expired listings within a single week of Valencia real estate activity. That is something that isn’t new. It is just new within the last 4 years. There are a few other statutes which are also being entered with regard to the real estate listings that you should be made aware of.
Hold – This status would indicate some sort of an issue maybe with a contractual debate, with the home seller, or with the relationship between the seller’s people and the real estate agent. Sometimes the homeowners don’t want to show their homes due to special events that come up in life. In the Santa Clarita Valley and as your Valencia CA real estate expert, this should not be a shock, it happens. I’d tell you, as we speak with our clients, please inquire with me and I will do my further investigations. One of the “holds” that I was contacted on last week was the case of a homeowner that had company in town who wanted to take the weekend off from showing. That fact was cleared up with a simple phone call to the seller’s real estate agent on behalf of my home buyers.
Withdrawn – removed from the market prematurely. There is still a valid contract in place, but for whatever reason, the agent or the homeowner with the agent’s blessing, or visa versa, withdrew the home from the active real estate inventory.
Both the Expired status, the Withdrawn, and Cancelled status propagate a ton of phone calls to the home seller. Even if you have not given up your personal phone number to be entered into the private and confidential comments section of the Multiple Listing Service, which is outside of public view, there are companies that make it their business to keep track of you and your numbers over time. Unfortunately, this is not a great scenario. Even though I have had my phone number on the Do Not Call List since it’s inception, I field over 20 spam callers a day, several robo dialers and those “hangup” generated phone calls which hope that I’ll do a redial of their number thinking it’s business. I don’t call back.
If the caller is not willing to leave a message, I figure that I was not important enough to them and I go to the next thing that I have been working on, which is probably a Valencia CA real estate and housing market update. 🙂
Until the end of July 2018, as I showed with our Santa Clarita real estate news update the Santa Clarita Valley homes were selling quickly. At a fast pace. When you then look at the information for 2018 to date, you can see quite a change in the rate the Valencia CA homes have been selling. With a large increase as we closed out July 2018. This was the act of additional Valencia CA homes entering the real estate market for sale where those homes and new inventory overwhelmed the real estate market.
We still have a lot of home buyers for the Valencia CA area, however – the additional inventory was not enough, and happened too quickly for the home buyers in the Valencia CA housing market to keep up.
Something else that our Valencia CA real estate and housing market update will show throughout the rest of 2018, is that our slow down will progressively get worse. With less and less inventory added to the “active and for sale” numbers of housing inventory, the market will slow to a standstill as we approach new years of 2019 – picking up as soon as the clock strikes midnight of 2018 ushering in 2019 with a bang concerning the Santa Clarita real estate and Valencia CA real estate markets.
I am positive that 2019 is going to be a robust year for real estate. If you look at the track records in Big Government, the best gains were with a Split House and Senate in Washington. With the Midterm elections as of late, we will have that again and consumer confidence in real estate will climb for the next couple of years.
Then what??? Anyone’s guess. But, as has been overstated, real estate cannot keep going up forever. There is an adjustment to be had at particular times. Are we experiencing a correction in real estate? Let’s keep exploring the latest graphical data for the Valencia housing market and I’ll address that question as we continue.
The numbers of homes sold during the past 4 years are very telling. With confidence in Valencia CA, I am able to tell you that we have not seen such a low point. The closest event to a low point came when we reached January of 2015 as compared with February of this year, 2018. To date, over the past 4 years – Closing out October takes the proverbial cake in real estate with fewer sales than we have seen at any time within Valencia during the past 4 years!
I’m going to go to Church with you for a moment. This has more to do with the current government makeup than it has to do with unemployment -lowest since the 1960’s. This has less to do with the types of loan programs – they are still abundant and plentiful. You don’t need 20% to buy a home. You can buy a home with 3.5% down payment if you want finance FHA. You can buy a home with nothing down in Valencia California if you want to go with a Veterans Administration loan if you qualify for that.
If you want to go with a conventional loan program, they have all variations. The reasons that most people go with an FHA loan, is because they don’t have 20% down for the down payment and their credit may not be stellar.
FHA also carries with it Property Mortgage Insurance, which is an extra fee that one will pay per month in addition to their mortgage payment. It varies in amount and can be $100.00 and more. The PMI, property mortgage insurance, is what is charged for borrowing money on real estate when a person has less than 20% down payment.
Back to conventional loans. These programs are available to those who have little down payments, depending on the institution and to those who have good credit. There are “special” conventional loan programs out there that the lenders we now have access to that surprise me from time to time being better than even a Veterans Administration, VA loan and better than FHA, Federal Housing Administration loans. It depends on the lender and how nimble they are in the creative sector.
Dropping prices? Yes – We are seeing that the residential listing prices – the average numbers are reducing month over month within the city of Valencia California.
Tracking back to the beginning, January 2018, we see that the listing prices on average are the lowest point we have seen in Valencia during 2018. This speaks volumes to the current state of the Valencia housing market.
Now – these are not “sold prices” That is another chart for Valencia real estate news that I will be talking about lower on this page. These are the “listing prices”. These are what the homeowner hopes to get for the home that their agent is selling for them.
In pricing Valencia CA real estate there are agents who hit the nail on the head due to their vast expertise and knowledge when it comes to pricing Valencia real estate. The lions share of their knowledge comes to having an intimate relationship with the home buyers that want to purchase Valencia real estate, thereby working with those who are the Valencia market.
As an aside, when you are ready to get an opinion as to what your Valencia CA home is worth, don’t make the mistake of trusting one of the online platforms that are not connected to an actual real estate agent. This is where people get into trouble and create problems for themselves. They do this and the next thing they know is they are getting a return of statistics from property recordings from the Tax Assessor’s office and not the actual Multiple Listing Service that has a much more robust enforcement mechanism when it comes to errors and mistakes. A human being has to enter the amount the specific home sold for. With the Board of Realtors, which some of these syndication websites don’t have access to because they are lead generators, not realtors, the agents get fined or worse for not entering accurate information. And there is a check mechanism that the Board of Realtors has access to so if the info is wrong, it’s corrected.
Use the Local Agents’ real estate valuation tool to get the intel directly from the Multiple Listing Service in Valencia. Then that same agent will reach out to you and give you intel and data that pertains directly to their knowledge and experience in Valencia CA real estate. We pride ourselves on being the Top Realtors in the Valencia CA housing market. Just look at what we are reading and writing on a daily basis on the SCVbest.com and SCVblog.com websites.
Another dynamic we are seeing change is that we are seeing in the Valencia housing market is homes are selling for less than their listing prices. We have seen this trend in most months of 2018. November is not close to being completed – check back when I have completed the beginning real estate report for Valencia starting December 2018. On the date of this real estate report for Valencia CA, 11.08.2018, we don’t have the complete data for the month of November, check back often at SCVblog.com
This graphic shows that during most months in Valencia CA the average out of the Original price versus the Sold price that people are having offers accepted at less than the asking prices.
During the times in which the inventory was much tighter than today, this was the case and if you look at the month of May, it seemed like the trend within Valencia CA real estate.
That margin has slowed – looking at the closing figures in October 2018, the housing prices were at a dead heat compared to the prices that folks were willing to pay, on average in Valencia CA housing.
If you look at the chart showing Valencia CA homes and real estate, the sold prices for November look like they are going through the top of the chart. This is the same as we observed in the last reporting graphic. I am preparing this at the beginning of the 1st quarter of November of 2018. That is where the calendar is currently so hence the dramatic increase of sold prices in Valencia CA.
If you back up the to the three preceding months when we broke new ground (the past 4 years) taken into account related to the new Valencia CA housing inventory, you will see that prices are reducing. It may be that November of 2018 equates to being even less than the October 2018 numbers. We will have to wait and see when we finish November of 2018 so we can all have a look to see if the trend is correcting itself or if the real estate market in Valencia California is going to continue to decline in home prices.
Is now a good time to buy a home? Yes, for some people it is and for others, it’s a horrible time. It all depends on circumstances, your own personal ones.
I don’t see all the indicators needed to have the proverbial Valencia CA real estate bubble burst. I don’t even see a Valencia CA real estate bubble. I see that prices are close, if not where they were back before the fall of the last real estate cycle. But in real estate, we have seen that before and prices continue to push beyond those figures when the market recovers and continues on.
If you looked at what your parents paid for their home, you will see that those values have increased over the past 50 years. Even with the downturns in the real estate markets, things continued to get more expensive. The market always recovers and then does better than it did before.
The same track record applies to Valencia CA.
I’m here to serve your real estate needs in Valencia CA and in the rest of the Santa Clarita Valley cities. My name is Connor T. MacIvor. Just google me and see what I write, what I digest and what I convey to the real estate interested within the Santa Clarita – Valencia CA news cycles.
I’ll be here for you and yours when you are ready to have your real estate Won and not just done!
You can always listen to our real estate broadcast that I conduct each Monday of every week talking about the prior week’s real estate activity and what is going to come about in the future.