Santa Clarita real estate market update September 24, 2018

    The seller’s market we have been having for the last few years is starting to weaken as we see more Santa Clarita real estate inventory hitting the market on a weekly basis.

    We had a couple of clients that had spoken with Paris and me about selling their home. We went through the listing presentation and they were very happy with the outcome.

    During the next few weeks, I had kept them updated as to the local Santa Clarita Valley market. I had been sending them the weekly activity and the current market trends that will affect them as home sellers when that time comes.

    I was visiting with a home buyer that we had sold a new Saugus CA home to, only to drive by the home and see that the house that I was just speaking about had been listed with another agent.

    Apparently, I arrived on the scene before these nice people could pick up the phone and let me know they had chosen another route for the sale of their home.

    I sat in amazement and was a bit bewildered. I knew the agent on the sign and she falls into the old saying, “if you have nothing nice to say about another person, then don’t say it.”

    While I was sitting there, my phone rang. It was Mr. Seller, he said he sees me on one of the security cameras. As I stated, we have been communicating about selling his home for quite some time now. We have had many conversations and have exchanged video communications related to the local Saugus CA housing market.

    He said he was going to call me and that his wife’s boss wanted them to interview another agent. He continued to say he was against and they did it to appease his wife’s boss.

    I told him I understood and that these things happen. Of course, I did convey how I was not super happy with their decision and asked how I would be able to improve my process in the future. I really wanted to know the overwhelming reason why someone would choose another agent over me.

    He said in response that he and his wife want to work with Paris and me. He said again he was going to call and then he said he was confused about the sign in his yard.

    At this point, I became confused myself, “I don’t understand”, I explained.

    He then stated they only interviewed this lady and they did not sign anything, they did not want to hire her, but this sign was installed and they have not been able to get her to call them back.

    I was at a loss for words, talk about assuming the sale. That takes “assuming the sale” to a whole new level.

    Without a contract the sign is meaningless. It will depend on the “provable” intention of the realtor in question. I suggested a follow-up call with her broker to complain.

    Meanwhile, we had contracts signed and all is good in the world. At least I found out that I have not lost my edge when it comes to being hired to sell real estate.

    Santa Clarita real estate update – Overall

    The Santa Clarita Valley Cities for this beginning dissertation about its current market activity is going to be pointed to Single-Family Homes located with the cities of Castaic, Canyon Country, Newhall, Stevenson Ranch, Valencia, and Saugus.

    This graphic is the “overall view” of the Santa Clarita single family home results that we have been researching for our housing clients. Below this, I have gone into painstaking detail related to each individual Santa Clarita Valley city. As we close out September 2018, we will be putting the finishing touches on the other SCV housing market reports soon.

    After July of most years, we see a slow down in the real estate market as it relates to the selling to standing inventory. This year is going to be one of the most “inventory” rich years on record for at least the last 4 years in Santa Clarita real estate.

    With a 30% increase in saleable real estate inventory in the Santa Clarita Valley during the past few weeks and with us starting to enter the fall’s traditional yearly performance couple with the holiday season, the market’s days on market time frames have started to increase.

    It is taking longer to sell Santa Clarita real estate, depending on the price range.

    Figure 1 – months of inventory in the Santa Clarita Valley

    In a healthy and typical real estate market you have a couple of factors that rule the day. The same types of factors exist in the local Santa Clarita real estate market.

    Months of inventory absorption rates Santa Clarita PDF

    One, Foreclosures are basically 1% of the real estate market. This is where we arrived a few months ago. The foreclosures and bank owned real estate inventory, in fact, any of the distressed real estates including short sales, all dipped to the 1% level. Today in the Greater Los Angeles Areas, I’m currently tracking a total of 16,669 real estate listings for sale. Of those real estate listings, 154 are distressed – they are foreclosures, real estate owned – REO, bank owned, and short sales.

    That is pretty close to the market with regard to one of the indicators of a healthy real estate market.

    Number 2 – Absorption rate. When I refer to months of inventory, I’m talking about absorption rate. The absorption rate references that if there were no other homes placed onto the market, at the present amount of homes being sold, how long would it take the “housing market in question” to get to ZERO listings.

    A healthy real estate market is around 6 months of inventory. The From the Chart, Figure 1, we see that indicated by the blue line, Months of Inventory, we are close to approaching 6 months of standing real estate inventory.

    We are currently in the transition phase from a total seller’s real estate market in the Santa Clarita Valley cities, to the halfway point between a sellers real estate market and a buyer’s real estate market.

    The changes continue to be apparent where home buyers have more to choose from as far as inventory goes. If we have enough added real estate inventory, we may see that the prices start to reduce.

    Figure 2 – listing prices versus sold prices

    Fig – 2, indicates the listing prices versus sold prices – We do see that the sale prices have reduced and that the seller and their agents have not caught on effectively. The span between the listing prices and the sold prices is widening, another indicator of a changing real estate market in the SCV cities.

    Listing prices versus Santa Clarita sale prices – PDF

    This will continue until the home sellers have been on the market long enough to reduce their home prices to levels that the existing home buyers are willing to approach and pay.

    The time of overpricing real estate listings are over. Home buyers, at least ours, have a full comparable run on our systems turned over to them before pencil is put to paper related to writing an offer on all real estate.

    They, our home buyers, know to go in and don’t think it strange to write that a home is worth, versus that a seller may have priced it for.

    The breakdown of the other local Santa Clarita Valley real estate market data graphs is below.

    I ran, as I always do the specific cities where we have active listings, besides the local Santa Clarita Valley cities where we have the highest home buyer and home seller interest.

    Remember, or you probably have not forgotten at this point :), make sure you reach out to me when you are ready to have your real estate WON and not just simply DONE – I’ll be here for you 100%.

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    Due to the changing real estate market and the Santa Clarita market entering into the slower season of the fall to winter, I have decided to look at the most prevalent changes to the local housing market and graph them out. Days on Market and listing price – median.

    I will cover the cities in no particular order, but first, let me say the dynamic in some is quite revealing. While most of the home buyers are seeing the price reductions and thinking they are going to “steal” a home in the coming months, I don’t see any “bubbles” that are looming over the current housing market.

    We are going to experience an adjustment related to the listing prices and the home values. We won’t be seeing the bottom falling out of the current real estate and housing market any time soon.

    The data on the following graphical representations of the housing data correspond to Yellow – List Price, Median, and Blue – Days to Sell, Median.

    These are the true graphical representations and I will also download the data charts in PDF for your viewing pleasure.

    Over time you will see that Days on Market timeframes are increasing in the Santa Clarita real estate market. You will also be able to see that home prices are responding accordingly.

    Castaic real estate update

    You can see that in Castaic we have the increase of median listing price. We are also having a slight reduction in the median days to sell. This is going to be something to watch as we finish out the year. I will tell you that in certain months we have anomalies occur when it comes to more listings entering the housing market than is typical. These trends are best reports and looked at over longer periods of time.

    Canyon Country real estate update

    Canyon Country has currently 204 homes and real estate listings on the market for sale. This is higher in amount than we have seen in years. In fact, this is causing the home seller’s market that the home sellers in Canyon Country have been enjoying, to slow down. It’s taking longer to sell Canyon Country real estate than a several weeks ago. This is because the additional real estate inventory has given home buyers more listings to choose from. Also, the home buyer drive has slowed down due to us being out of the summer and transitioning into the fall.

    Interest rates are still great across the board and during the last meeting of the FED, interest rates stayed put. The next meeting of the FED is coming up soon and it is opined that interest rates will be raised no matter what. Stay Tuned for that breaking information that I put out related to the interest rate market in the Santa Clarita Valley cities.

    Newhall real estate update

    Newhall CA – during the last couple of months has seen a different sort of result to its market, less expensive homes are entering the market than in months past, during August and MTD in September, and you have had the days to sell reduce in number from having a median level of 17 to 10 currently.

    Homes, when priced right, sell this way. Once the local inventory started to override the number of home buyers in the real estate market, the trend starts to reverse.

    There are currently 92 real estate listings and homes for sale in Newhall – that is quite low so hence the days on market being tight.

    Saugus real estate update

    Stevenson Ranch real estate update

    Stevenson Ranch is one of the Santa Clarita Valley cities that continues to have one of the lowest levels of homes for sale, which has persisted for the last few years. Today in Stevenson Ranch is no different with only 27 current home listings that are on the active real estate market as being listed for sale.

    I have been selling Stevenson Ranch homes and it has been difficult to find what our buyers want. Doorknocking, when I’m mostly opposed to this practice, has proven good for our home buyers in an inventory tight real estate market, because I have been able to get listings to sell our buyers.

    I would never door knock as a rouse in order to get a listing and lie about having a specific qualified real estate home buyer for the home which I was knocking on the door.

    Valencia real estate update

    Worth pointing out that Valencia CA has had a sizeable increase of real estate time that it’s taking to sell homes. From under 10 days to 25 days in under 4 months. There are currently 173 real estate listings for sale in Valencia.

    When you want to check on the current inventory numbers go to SCVnest.com and be sure to type in the city name you are interested in. That will tell you all of the currently active homes, condos, and town-home listings that are for sale in any city you desire.

    We will be able to represent you whether you are wanting to sell or buy a home. If you are not part of our local reach where we directly represent home buyers and sellers, just inquire and I will activate our REMAX Relocation System and find you a qualified real estate agent that operates their business as do Paris and I.

    Acton real estate update

    Acton CA experienced one of the most dramatic reductions of time that it’s taking to sell homes and real estate that I have charted as of late. They came from their most recent high back in June 2018 and have reduced those days from 60, at that time, to where they are today at 20 days – Median.

    These numbers will be increasing during the next few months if the trends hold true.

    Lake Arrowhead real estate update

    We do happen to so further than most real estate agents when it comes to representing our clients. This home is listed for sale by us for a friend whom I worked with at the LAPD. This is his parents home and I’m in the process of reporting to them about the Lake Arrowhead housing and real estate trends that you see on this graphic.

    Those days on market are larger than other markets due to those areas not having the same home buyer drive. It’s the same for homes and estate on acreage, agricultural and livestock lands, they take longer to sell than homes that are in an urban setting.

    Lake Arrowhead is pretty awesome and had a low point regarding time to sell back in May of this year, 2018. Now, they have progressed to a median-days time to sell to over 80 days.

    Long real estate update for the Santa Clarita real estate market concludes

    I have been representing my home clients since 1998. I will tell you that in that time I have produced over 2000 real estate help videos. I have produced over 10,000 real estate articles, such as this one, speaking about the housing market and how to keep yourselves safe when buying and selling real estate.

    I have also been very active in most of the local communities when it comes to helping those who are less fortunate.

    I’m Blessed to have some of the best real estate clients anyone could ask “pray” for. I’m in the business to help you and serve your real estate needs.

    When you are ready for my assistance, just reach out and I’ll be here for you and yours.

    Connor and Paris MacIvor

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    Connor MacIvor

    Connor and Paris MacIvor are in the Top 1% of Realtors Nationwide, starting their real estate business in 1998 with RE/MAX Gateway - Santa Clarita Valley and Valencia CA. Their becoming licensed real estate consultants and representatives came from the horrible experience they had when they bought their first home. There were many things that the agent they had hired did not explain and disclose, which per law he should have. Getting that agent on the phone after they closed escrow and after he had gotten paid was impossible. Paris and Connor called the broker, the board of realtors, the office manager and all they received was the promise of a phone call back. The remedy did come, but not as fast and in the way they wanted. That act - that bad agent was the reason why Paris and Connor became Realtors. That was all they needed to vow to never let the same fate befall anyone else, that befell them. Today Connor and Paris are focused on client service. Protection and top-shelf service with regard to their real estate clientele. They primarily work within the Santa Clarita Valley and Valencia CA. However, for a referral, where 80+ of their business is referrals they have License and Will Travel to other parts of Ventura County, Los Angeles County, and Orange County to handle real estate transactions for those who trust their real estate operation. Writing on their Real Estate Blog is a passion. SCVnest.com/blog is where you will find over 10,000 real estate articles. Go to SCVnest.com/radio to listen to their latest real estate radio broadcast.

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    Connor and Paris MacIvor

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